BBC: How pandemics end

In March 2020, the World Health Organization the WHO, declared Covid-19 a pandemic. Now, after two and half years in the shadow of Covid, for many people travel restrictions are ending, and many people around the world are starting their lives again. But not everyone. 

Whether its's because of lockdowns and not seeing friends, or getting sick, even dying, everyone wants to see an end to the pandemic. But with cases of Covid infections still in the millions, and doctors warning about new variants of the disease, is the pandemic really coming to an end? In this programme, we'll be finding out how pandemics end, and, as usual, we'll be learning some related vocabulary as well. 

Of course, pandemics are nothing new. Ancient texts are full of stories of plagues which spread death and disease before eventually going away. In the Middle Ages, The Black Death that killed over half of Europe's population lasted for four years. It's only with modern vaccines that diseases have been eradicated- completely ended. So, Neil, my question this week is: which diseas was eradicated in 1977? Was it:

a) cholera   b) polio   or c) smallpox 

I'm going to say c) smallpox. 

OK, I'll reveal the answer at the end of the program. 

Of course, the idea that the pandemic might not be ending isn't something people want to hear. Most people are sick of worrying about Covid and can't wait for things to get back to normal. But as Yale University physician, Professor Nicholas Christakis, explained to BBC World Service programme, The inquiry, it's not just the biological disease that needs to end- pandemics have a social ending too. 

Pandemics are not just a biological phenomenon, they're also a social phenomenon, and they end socially. And one of the ways that they end socially is when everyone just sort of agree that they have ended- when everyone is simply willing to tolerate more risk. On other words, we sort of declare victory, maybe prematurely, or another way of thinking about it is, we put our heads in the sand. 

Biologically Covid still exists in the world and most of us would rather not catch it. But if you're vaccinated, the risk of getting seriously ill is mich lower, so it's reasonable to make plans to resuem normal life. When enough people do this, we declare victory- a pharase meaning to announce something to be finished before it actually is, but when it looks 'good enough'.

The danger is that we declare victory prematurely- too soon, before it's the best time to do so. Professor Christakis uses another idiom for this- to bury your head in the sand, meaning to deliberately refuse to accept the truth about something you find unpleasant. 

It's also true that pandemic do not end in the same way for everyone, everywhere. Rich western countries with the resources to vaccinate their populations are in a better position than most.

Professor Dora Vargha is an expert on the history of medicine. She compares the Covid pandemic to an ongoing disease for which we have no cure, and which has killed millions since its outbreak in the 1980s- HIV/Aids. Here is Professor Vargaha speaking with BBC World Service's, The Inquiry.